Cross-Border Macroeconomic Determinants of Homicide in Jamaica: A Time-Series Analysis of US and Jamaican Economic Indicators, 1970-2024

Abstract

This study examines the influence of macroeconomic indicators in both Jamaica and the United States on Jamaica's homicide rate from 1970 to 2024. The central objective is to evaluate how US and Jamaican GDP per capita and unemployment rates contribute to homicide in Jamaica, based on theoretical assumptions that economic deprivation-whether domestic or transnational-exacerbates violent crime (Becker, 1968; Bourne et al., 2012). Employing annual time-series data, the analysis utilises both Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression and an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model to investigate contemporaneous and lagged relationships. The OLS results show that Jamaican unemployment (? = 0.82, p <0.01) and US GDP per capita (? = 0.63, p <0.05) are positively associated with Jamaica's homicide rate. ARIMAX modelling confirms the predictive strength of these indicators, particularly during periods of heightened US economic expansion and Jamaican joblessness. The findings suggest that both domestic deprivation and global economic conditions-especially those from economically dominant nations, such as the US-significantly influence crime dynamics in smaller economies. These results align with economic strain theory and dependency theory perspectives, underscoring the multidimensional and transnational drivers of violence in postcolonial states. The study concludes with a call for multidimensional policy approaches that integrate local labour policies and macroeconomic monitoring of US economic trends to anticipate domestic social fallout.