Dynamic Macroeconomic Determinants of Missing and Returned Persons in Jamaica: An ARIMAX Time-Series Approach

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic conditions, violence intensity, and disappearance outcomes in Jamaica using annual data from 2018 to 2024. Missing persons, returned persons, and net unresolved cases are modelled as functions of GDP per capita, unemployment, inflation, poverty, and homicide rates within a macro-structural framework grounded in strain theory and social disorganisation theory. Descriptive analysis and exploratory time-series regression results indicate that economic instability and elevated homicide rates are positively associated with missing persons and net unresolved accumulation, while economic expansion is associated with improved return performance and reduced disappearance burden. The findings further suggest that periods of labour market contraction, inflationary pressure, and high violence correspond with increased systemic vulnerability and reduced institutional recovery capacity. Although the short time horizon limits full dynamic ARIMAX estimation, the empirical patterns demonstrate consistent structural relationships between macroeconomic instability and disappearance dynamics. The study contributes to the literature by integrating disappearance incidence and recovery outcomes within a unified econometric framework and highlights the importance of coordinated economic stabilisation and violence reduction policies to improve institutional effectiveness and social protection.