BAYESIAN BASED RISK MODEL FOR ONSHORE RILLING OPERATIONS

Abstract

Active monitoring of risks is critical as it provides feedback on barrier performance before the risk results in disastrous impacts such as personnel or asset damage. The current article focuses on presenting an active risk monitoring method which evaluates barriers and transforms the existing Bow-Ties to a Bayesian risk model considering an onshore gas drilling environment. The Bayesian risk model is used to identify the operational risks associated with the major accident hazards for personnel and asset impacts. This article presents a novel approach to transform the Bow-tie to a Bayesian Risk model. The results of this model have been validated and well received by drilling engineers and Safety/ HSE professionals.