Assessing the Impact of Macroeconomic Fluctuations on Road Traffic Fatalities in Jamaica: A Time-Series Analysis (2000-2025)

Abstract

Road traffic accidents (RTAs) remain a leading cause of injury and death globally, yet there is limited empirical evidence in Jamaica quantifying the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and road traffic fatalities over time. This study addresses this gap by employing a quantitative, retrospective time-series design to examine annual RTA fatalities in Jamaica from 2000 to 2025 in relation to GDP, unemployment rates, fuel prices, infrastructure investment, and vehicle registrations. Data were sourced from the Jamaica Constabulary Force, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, and the Bank of Jamaica. An ARIMAX (1,1,1) model was applied to capture both autoregressive and moving average components while incorporating external macroeconomic predictors. The model accounted for 76% of the variation in fatalities, demonstrating strong explanatory power. The results indicate that GDP growth (? = 0.072, p <0.01) and fuel prices (? = 0.39, p <0.05) positively influence fatalities, whereas unemployment (? = -4.83, p <0.05) exerts a negative effect, reflecting reduced mobility during economic downturns. Infrastructure investment and vehicle registrations also contribute positively, highlighting exposure effects associated with development. Lagged effects reveal that economic fluctuations influence fatalities over subsequent years, providing valuable foresight for policy intervention. These findings align with global evidence linking economic expansion and road safety risk, supporting the application of predictive time-series models in public health planning. The current study underscores the importance of integrating macroeconomic monitoring into Jamaica’s road safety strategies and offers actionable insights for mitigating future fatalities during periods of economic growth or volatility.