Urbanisation, Socioeconomic Inequality, and Diabetes Prevalence in Jamaica: A Spatial and Longitudinal Analysis (2010-2025)

Abstract

Urbanisation and socioeconomic inequality are increasingly recognised as structural determinants of non-communicable diseases, yet their combined impact on diabetes prevalence in Jamaica remains underexplored. This study examines the association between urban growth, social inequality, and adult diabetes prevalence from 2010 to 2025 using spatial and longitudinal data. Annual diabetes prevalence rates were obtained from national health surveys, while urbanisation metrics and socioeconomic indicators were derived from census and administrative datasets. Spatial autocorrelation and panel regression models were applied to assess the effects of urbanisation and inequality on diabetes prevalence across parishes. The current findings indicate that areas experiencing rapid urban growth and higher socioeconomic deprivation exhibit significantly higher diabetes prevalence, even after controlling for age, sex, and other covariates. These findings highlight the importance of structural and environmental determinants in shaping population health. Policies targeting urban planning, equitable resource allocation, and access to healthy food may mitigate the growing diabetes burden in Jamaica.