Demographic and Epidemiological Trends of Intentional Homicide in Jamaica, 1970-2024: A Longitudinal Analysis of Socioeconomic, Age, Sex, and Regional Determinants

Abstract

This study examines the demographic and epidemiological transition of intentional homicide in Jamaica from 1970 to 2024, analysing national trends, age and sex patterns, regional distribution, socioeconomic correlates, and firearm- and drug-related homicides. Using a mixed-methods approach, quantitative data were sourced from official Jamaican records, including the Jamaica Constabulary Force and the Statistical Institute of Jamaica. At the same time, qualitative insights were obtained through a literature review of socioeconomic and policy determinants. Findings indicate a substantial increase in homicide rates from 8 per 100,000 in 1970 to a peak of 61.8 per 100,000 in 2009, followed by a gradual decline to 40.2 per 100,000 in 2024. Young males aged 15-34 were consistently the most affected group, accounting for over 80% of victims, while urban parishes such as Kingston and St. Andrew exhibited the highest homicide rates.

Homicides linked to firearms and drug-related activities peaked in 2009, representing 85% and 45% of total homicides, respectively, highlighting the role of gang activity and illicit arms proliferation. Socioeconomic factors, including high unemployment and poverty rates, were strongly correlated with homicide trends, demonstrating the structural determinants of violence. A comparative analysis across regional and international contexts suggests that integrated interventions combining law enforcement, social programmes, and public health strategies are essential for reducing homicide. This study provides evidence-based recommendations for multi-sectoral policies targeting the structural, demographic, and epidemiological drivers of intentional homicide in Jamaica.