U.S. Foreign Policy as a Leadership Catastrophic System: Implications for Global Stability and Small-State Vulnerability

Abstract

U.S. foreign policy has historically been characterised by strategic assertiveness, global military reach, and economic coercion, often projecting unilateral influence that can destabilise international systems. This study examines U.S. foreign policy as a leadership catastrophic system, conceptualised as a governance approach in which concentrated decision-making, limited accountability, and structural asymmetries produce unintended, destabilising outcomes both domestically and internationally. Using a qualitative, documentary, and discourse-analytic methodology, the study draws on policy statements, sanctions regimes, military interventions, and multilateral diplomatic engagements to explore how leadership decisions reverberate across global political, economic, and social systems. The integrated theoretical framework combines Critical Geopolitics, Structural Power Theory, and Complex Systems Theory to analyse the mechanisms through which U.S. policy decisions propagate systemic risk. The findings highlight patterns of unilateralism, overreach, and asymmetric intervention, demonstrating that concentrated executive authority coupled with global influence can exacerbate regional instability, undermine small-state sovereignty, and trigger cascading crises in peripheral regions. This study also illustrates that bureaucratic constraints, domestic political pressures, and elite-driven decision-making processes amplify the likelihood of policy catastrophes. Recommendations emphasise enhancing multilateral decision-making, improving systemic feedback mechanisms, and strengthening international norms to mitigate destabilising effects. Recognising U.S. foreign policy as a catastrophic leadership system provides a lens for anticipating, analysing, and managing the risks inherent in superpower interventions. This approach is particularly salient for small states and regional blocs seeking to safeguard sovereignty and stability amid asymmetric power dynamics.