The Structural Burden of Poverty and Blackness in Jamaica: Racial Capitalism, Macroeconomic Inequality, and the Long-Run Determinants of Social Exclusion (1970-2024)

Abstract

The persistent intersection of poverty and Blackness in Jamaica represents a structural condition rooted in the historical evolution of plantation capitalism and sustained through contemporary global economic arrangements. This study examines the extent to which racialised poverty is reproduced within Jamaica’s macroeconomic environment by integrating the theoretical framework of racial capitalism with empirical time-series analysis. Using annual data spanning 1970 to 2024, the study employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous variables (ARIMAX) models to assess the relationships between gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment, poverty, educational attainment, and social marginalisation, proxied by homicide rates. The findings indicate that unemployment and poverty are consistently significant predictors of marginalisation, while education exerts a mitigating effect on adverse social outcomes. Notably, economic growth is positively associated with marginalisation, suggesting that GDP expansion does not translate into inclusive development in Jamaica. The ARIMAX results further reveal strong temporal dependence, indicating that historical inequalities exert a persistent influence on contemporary socio-economic conditions. These results underscore the structural nature of inequality and support the central proposition of racial capitalism that economic systems are inherently embedded within racial hierarchies that reproduce disadvantage. The current study identifies a critical gap in the literature, namely the lack of integrated empirical analyses that combine race-conscious theory with long-run econometric modelling in Caribbean contexts. By addressing this gap, the study provides a unified analytical framework for understanding how race, class, and macroeconomic forces interact to sustain poverty in Jamaica. Policy implications point toward the need for structural transformation, including redistributive economic reforms, educational expansion, and labour market restructuring.